This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Republican candidate wins at least five of the following 2026 midterm Senate elections.
This market will resolve to “No” if a Republican candidate wins four or fewer of the following 2026 midterm Senate elections.
The relevant elections are the elections for US senator from Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Michigan and Ohio.
A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
