Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...?

TU Predict
Volume$440.00
No release by November 30
$392.1 24h volume
38%
November 12
$159.2 24h volume
13%
November 13
$116.1 24h volume
12%
November 26
$136.5 24h volume
11%
November 9
$87.8 24h volume
11%
November 10
$96 24h volume
11%
November 23
$102 24h volume
9%
November 3
$150.8 24h volume
9%
November 1
$96 24h volume
9%
November 11
$142 24h volume
9%
November 15
$96 24h volume
9%
November 18
$96 24h volume
9%
November 28
$117 24h volume
9%
November 29
$117 24h volume
9%
November 6
$105 24h volume
9%
November 16
$96 24h volume
9%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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