Who will be arrested before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:

• Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
• Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
• Being formally booked or processed following detention
• Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
• Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
• Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention

• An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
• Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
• Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
• Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.